As climate disasters intensify, ecosystems collapse, and global waste spirals out of control, the world faces a stark paradox: we know what must be done to secure a sustainable future—yet we continue down the same destructive path. The 2024 Interconnected Disaster Risks report by the United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), titled Turning Over a New Leaf, tackles this contradiction head-on. Rather than focusing solely on what’s going wrong, it offers a vision of transformative change and a roadmap for how to get there.
The report identifies five fundamental shifts necessary for meaningful progress: rethinking waste, realigning with nature, reconsidering responsibility, reimagining the future, and redefining value. But underpinning these themes is a larger question: Why, despite decades of warnings and knowledge, have we failed to act decisively?
To address this, UNU-EHS introduces the Theory of Deep Change (ToDC), a new framework for systemic transformation. It posits that real change goes beyond surface-level interventions like recycling or carbon offsetting. Instead, it requires confronting the root causes of our problems—our assumptions, values, and the structures they support.
Take the issue of waste, for example. Today’s economic model thrives on consumption, driven by the belief that “more is better” and that happiness lies in acquiring new things. This assumption feeds a linear system: extract, consume, discard. As the report notes, even popular solutions like recycling can fall short if the core system remains unchanged. In some cases, knowing that an item is recyclable can even encourage more consumption. The report suggests that a real solution lies not just in managing waste, but in questioning the belief that leads to its production. If we valued longevity, repairability, and finite resources, we’d design systems very differently—from product regulations to business models and infrastructure.
This is where the inner and outer levers of change come in. Inner levers refer to shifts in societal beliefs and values. Outer levers are changes in laws, policies, and institutions. Both must work in tandem to create lasting change. For example, the global perception of smoking has changed dramatically over the past few decades—thanks to a mix of public health campaigns (inner levers) and legislation (outer levers). The report argues that this kind of coordinated transformation is not only possible—it’s necessary.
Another urgent area explored is our concept of responsibility. Many environmental and social problems stem from narrow, self-focused thinking. Wealthier nations, for instance, often export plastic waste to countries with less capacity to manage it—outsourcing the problem rather than solving it. Similarly, the growing interest in solar geoengineering illustrates the danger of unilateral solutions. Technologies like aerosol spraying to reduce solar radiation might mitigate warming locally but risk unpredictable global consequences. Worse, they entrench inequality and distract from the fundamental solution: ending fossil fuel use.
Instead, the report calls for a reorientation—from “me” to “we.” This means embracing a collective sense of responsibility and recognizing that our actions ripple across borders. Effective global cooperation, such as that achieved through the Montreal Protocol to protect the ozone layer, is possible. That treaty succeeded because it addressed a shared problem with shared responsibility, supported by binding commitments and financial aid for lower-income countries. We need the same spirit of solidarity today to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and environmental degradation.
Ultimately, Turning Over a New Leaf challenges the dominant narrative of managing decline. Instead of simply limiting damage, we can envision—and work toward—a world we want to live in. A world where human systems operate in harmony with nature, where economic wealth does not come at the expense of planetary health, and where generations plan for centuries, not just election cycles.
To visualize this transformation, the report uses a compelling metaphor: if society were a tree, then climate change and pollution are its fruits. The trunk and branches—the structures—support them. But the roots, which draw from the soil of our shared values and beliefs, determine the health of the entire system. If we continue to feed the system with extractive, short-term, and self-centered values, we will continue to bear the same rotten fruit. But if we nurture a healthier foundation, we can grow something far more sustainable.
The message is clear: human-made problems can be unmade. Change is not just about doing things better, but doing better things. By engaging both our inner convictions and outer institutions, we can turn over a new leaf—not only avoiding catastrophe but cultivating a thriving, just, and resilient future.
